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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.