Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. Nevertheless, security analysts have cautioned that murder numbers may not signal enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded during these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the least number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.